It seems that, regardless of the number of analyses and simulations run, the ultimate deciding factor is chance, being in the right place at the right time. The release of the Passport, Blackberry's newest smartphone, has introduced a newer way to endorse the smartphone trend of "bigger is better"; while other smartphones have been slowly growing taller, the new Blackberry phone decided to widen horizontally. However, Blackberry has been lagging behind Apple and Samsung; while Blackberry once ruled the smartphone market, it now barely finds a stable niche. As an unlearned economist (referring to myself), this new design appears rather desperate as a main selling feature, but the global market is too large to predict; thus, while the fate of Blackberry may be glum, the new Passport may yet be Blackberry's passport back into the market.
The Blackberry Passport:
http://www.cnet.com/news/blackberry-hopes-love-it-or-hate-it-passport-earns-it-a-second-chance/
I agree that chance is the deciding factor. People come up with great ideas all the time, and they fail to gain traction and go big. As the "Triumph of the Nerds" videos show us, ideas get stolen all the time, and it's hard to know when a company will become successful, because another company can come out and steal their thunder.
ReplyDeleteI think this also shows that if companies don't respond to the ever-changing market they can be left behind. At least they're not just selling a clone of all the other phones; they're trying something different. Maybe it will catch on with some people.
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